Friday, October 17, 2008

The Second Season

Blogging has been rather thin this season - what's the deal? It didn't help that our recruiting-focused site witnessed a wild summer with 25 commits in the books before the season kicked off. And with Buckeyes spouting phrases like "unfinished business" and seeking "redemption", the senior-laden team laid a giant goose egg on college football's biggest stage on September 13.

After the loss, Buckeye fans crawled into their shelles, or as much as our ubiquitous fanbase can. When Terrelle Pryor made his first start against against Troy, we knew the coaching staff had an eye on the future, and our minds starting wandering there with them. But this team, trying for unprecedented third straight unshared conference title, still has a half a season in front of them. What are you watching for? We address the hot Buckeyes topics and look at the team goals...

The BCS Championship

There are Buckeyes fans who cling to this idea, clearing out a path for Ohio State to make a third trip in a row to the big game. It involves running the Big Ten table, and hope for mass chaos in the rankings above. With ranked foes like Michigan State and Penn State in the next two weeks, OSU will certainly find out where they're at. Laying waste to those two teams would build up some credibility, and they must for the SEC and Big 12 to beat themselves up to thin the ranks.

Folks, this just isn't happening. I'm not trying to be overly pessimistic, but there are simply too many problems with this scenario. First, there is a segment of the media, and a larger part of college fans, that are sick of watching OSU get dismantled. And with good reason. Second, Terrelle Pryor looks like he has the talent to lead the Buckeyes to a national title, but not this year. And if you haven't noticed, Jim Tressel has brought back his "bore you death" brand of football that was so endearing in 2003-05. There's nothing wrong with dreaming, but this is one to let go.

The Big Ten Title

This is possible, but it's going to be a dogfight. Ohio State has two road games against Michigan State and Illinois that could easily be losses if they don't bring their A game. We all saw what the Illini did last year in Columbus, and if you haven't notice the Buckeyes aren't exactly scoring in bunches this year. Penn State has never beaten Ohio State in the 'Shoe since they joined the conference. But this year feels like a mirror image of 2005, when OSU lost a prime time show down early on, and PSU is firing on all cylinders. Even Northwestern is a threat this year. Seriously.

Should the Buckeyes claw their way to a title, an unfriendly bowl game awaits them. They would be headed to the Rose Bowl for the first time since Joe Germaine broke Jake Plummer's heart in 1996. The reward will likely be a top 5 opponent. USC is the natural choice, but they have a good chance to play their way back into the title game. That would mean a replacement team, which could be SEC #2 (Alabama?) or Big 12 #2 (Oklahoma?).

Beat. Michigan.

It's funny how often people mention this as the key to winning over Ohio State fans. Tressel simply dominated Lloyd Carr, win six of seven and four in a row. With the Rod squad struggling mightily, it's hard to conceive that they could come into Columbus and beat Michigan on senior day. But crazier things have happened. Ohio State could keep struggling on offense, especially if Pryor doesn't progress in the passing game. The Wolverines have a talented defense and an offense that *could* score some cheap points on Mickey Mouse deception. And in truth, the nightmare of another Beanie Wells injury would certainly make this a more interesting matchup. No matter how dismal the Michigan season, a win here would buy The Rod some temporary peace with impatient fans.

All That to Say...

I don't expect Ohio State in the title game, nor do I see them collapsing to the middle of the conference either. Yes, the talent is there to win out. But the combination of Wells' health, Pryor's inexperience, the o-line's disappointment and the inexplicably predicable schemes of the coaching staff make me think a loss or two is likely. If I were being objective, I'd predict a 9-3 finish and a second place finish. That would send OSU to the Capital One Bowl to face SEC #3, a team like Georgia or a even a rematch with LSU. I know it's insane logic - but winning that game would be worth more in a lot of ways than winning the conference and not showing up in the bowl game again.

I'm watching tomorrow to see if Todd Boeckman gets any snaps to jump the anemic passing game...to see if Lawrence Wilson's injury guts the pass rush...to see if Brian Hoyer will hit the open receivers the Bucks commit to stopping Javon Ringer...to see if Terrelle Pryor can get himself untracked...my gut says Michigan State brings the house to this game and the Buckeyes will need 24 points to win. If they do, it should set up a gigantic game with Penn State in a defacto conference title game.

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